BOMB OR NO BOMB, WE GO!
by Bob Pilgrim
The following, is a fictitious situation based on facts and past tragedies that have compelled governments to develop the means to defend their citizens from the ominous specter of suicidal terrorism. Its purpose is twofold:
1. To illustrate what small, but well prepared local and regional tactical teams can do in a crises of this magnitude.
2. And to brief local, state
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Missing the Point - Catastrophically
by Dr. Michael Scheuer
U.S. politicians from both parties have spent 20 years debating and posturing over what to do about illegal immigration and uncontrolled land and sea borders. Today, the debate goes on, but little action has been taken. Since 9/11, Washington has
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Understanding Consequences in Urban Operations
by John P. Sullivan, Hal Kempfer, Jamison Jo Medby
Abstract: This paper addresses the concept of operational intelligence for homeland security and terrorism. It defines Intelligence Preparation for Operations (IPO), as a concept for addressing the intelligence needs entailed in responding to terrorism and operating in urban environments. As such, IPO includes consequence management intelligence, and is designed to facilitate "all-source/all phase fusion." It should be noted that IPO is applicable in CONUS as well
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Policing America’s Streets: Demobilization
by Richard J. Hughbank
Although the term demobilization infers that terrorist forces are maneuvering from a wartime position to a peacetime position through the disbanding of their organizational cells, this is not the posture I am referring to in this instance. Demobilization during terroristic guerrilla warfare is more likely to occur in the form of a dismembering of the operational cell responsible for the attack(s); that is,
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WE NEED WAR PRINCIPLES FOR OUR GENERATION
by Major Chris S. Richie USMC
Abstract
The genesis of this essay came from the Naval Institute solicitation for thoughts on the current principles of war. Throughout my time at ACSC, I have given much thought to the changing nature of war and what principles should guide us in the global war on terrorism. As I began to write ideas and match them with Network Centric Warfare and the concept of Fourth Generation Warfare, I began to
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Policing America’s Streets: Combat Employment
by Richard J. Hughbank
While the buildup phase is a continuous process, the day will come when the terrorist organization determines its time to execute a well-planned offensive maneuver against an unsuspecting civilian crowd. This asymmetric action will be a product of months of detailed planning, resourcing, organizing, and rehearsals. While I have commented on the varying social strata levels joining and participating in
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What motivates insurgents?
by Cadet Kate Bertanzetti
What motivates insurgents? What drives them to sacrifice their own lives in order to kill the enemy? A drive is, by definition, an “internal state of tension that motivates an organism to engage in activities that should reduce this tension” (278). Drives prompt an individual to various actions, actions meant to relieve the stress caused by the drive. This is called drive reduction. The body attempts to maintain
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Policing America’s Streets: Phase 5: Buildup
by Richard J. Hughbank
Once the organization of the terrorist cell begins to take shape, the buildup phase starts with the filling of those critical positions within the cell. Although the naming of the phase implies there is a massing or increase in size of the cell, the size will vary with each location (sociological environment), organization, and intended mission. Once again, unlike the traditionally sizable guerrilla
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Sweeping Up
by William Lind
As recognition of the defeat in Iraq spreads, so also does the process of sweeping up the debris. Both civilian observers and a few voices inside the military have begun the “lessons learned” business, trying to figure out what led to our defeat so that we do not repeat the same mistakes. That is the homage we owe to this war’s dead and wounded. To the degree we do learn important lessons, they
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Policing America’s Streets: Part IV
by Richard J. Hughbank
To this point, we have discussed the preparation and initial contact phases where the terrorist cells begin their selection of location and personnel for future operational activities. Once these phases have successfully evolved, the agents will begin the delicate third phase of infiltration. Infiltration is defined as complete submersion into our society. In places such as Dearborn, Michigan; Brooklyn, New York; Hancock, New York; and Buena Vista, Colorado (the last two cities
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Policing America’s Streets Part V
by Richard J. Hughbank
Once the infiltration phase has been established in an area of operations and deemed satisfactory to the needs of the newly formed insurgency cell, the terrorist cell’s organization begins to take shape as it grows in number from the ground up. The traditional guerrilla forces of Afghanistan, Brazil, China and Vietnam grew in size equaling company and battalion sized elements, but terrorist cells forming
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Policing America’s Streets: Part III
by Richard J. Hughbank
Once a terrorist cell has completed the preparation phase and selected a community for its operational environment, its command, control and communication (C3) structure begins the initial contact phase. During this phase, the organizational structure begins to take shape, and positions within the cell are filled with recruits from the local community. In order to recruit locals to meet their specific needs, clandestine operations are set into place to begin identifying
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INSURGENCY VS. TERRORIM
by H. Thomas Hayden
If you do not understand the difference between insurgency and terrorism, you need not worry because many at the highest levels of the U.S. government and the U.S. news media do NOT understand the difference either.
Insurgency is best defined as an organized movement aimed at the overthrow or destruction of a constituted government through the use of subversion, espionage, terrorism and armed conflict.
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Policing America’s Streets: Part II
by Richard J. Hughbank
To defeat the terrorist groups currently taking hold of our streets and neighborhoods and disrupting our social order, we need to understand how our enemies conduct business. When relating to guerilla warfare, we usually think of locations such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa, and South America, yet these types of militaristic operations are currently ongoing here in the United States by domestic organizations such as MS-13, Aryan Nation, and Neo-Confederates, as well as, transnational
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THE COMMANDER’S EMERGENCY RESPONSE PROGRAM Part 3
by Major Robert S. Widmann USAF
Joint Doctrine for Employing Economic Power
“Each brigade combat team (BCT) outside of Baghdad is conducting its own CMO campaign….the CMO effort could have been more effective: units conducted multiple, duplicative assessments and Commander’s
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Policing America’s Streets: How to Fight and Win
by Richard J. Hughbank
Over the past decade our neighborhood streets have become increasingly dangerous for all of us. Street gangs and other terrorist groups have become more sophisticated, organized, and violent. Terror lives on every street corner, back alley, and now in our homes! Although our citizenry is aware of the bad elements that roam our streets, they fail to see that the gangs of yesterday are quickly becoming the terrorist groups of today. As policing agencies, and
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THE COMMANDER’S EMERGENCY RESPONSE PROGRAM PART II
by Major Robert S. Widmann USAF
Money is Ammunition: Arming US Forces
“Money is ammunition…and that we didn’t have much,” MG Petraeus, Commander of the 101st Airborne Division, told CPA head, Ambassador Paul Bremer during the Ambassador’s first trip to Division HQ in the Northern Iraqi city of Mosul.
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Paking It In
by William Lind
The riots in Pakistan are hardly news anymore: if they appear in the paper at all, it is on page C17, between a story on starvation in the Sudan and a report that Mrs. McGillicuty fell down the stairs. The riots continue nonetheless, seemingly unconcerned that the rest of the world is no longer watching.
Perhaps it should. Periodic riots are normal in parts of the world; England was famous for them in the 18th century. But when
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Myanmar: Foreign Diplomacy and Domestic Unrest
by STRATFOR
February 13, 2006 21 52 GMT
Summary
Myanmarese Prime Minister Gen. Soe Win will pay a state visit to China on Feb. 14-18. The trip comes amid increased pressure from the United States against the government of Myanmar, and precedes a trip to the Southeast Asian nation by Indian President Avul
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NATIONAL GUARD AND HOMELAND SECURITY
by H. Thomas Hayden
During the Gulf War, 1990-1991, many of us were surprised to see that Army Reserve and National Guard units when evaluated for combat readiness were declared not ready or unsatisfactory and none deployed to the Gulf in time to support the attacks into Iraq or Kuwait. Many were forced to stay in the US and continued to train to improve their combat readiness ratings. Today, with the DoD wanting to scale back the National Guard many are asking what will be the future state
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THE COMMANDER’S EMERGENCY RESPONSE PROGRAM
by Major Robert S. Widmann USAF
Abstract
Combating fourth generation threats requires the integrated employment of all instruments of US national power. In particular, military forces should employ economic power during security and stability operations targeting the economic condition of the local population in the theater of operation. One element of economic power, the Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP),
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Domestic Surveillance - Illegality or Desperation?
by Dr. Michael Scheuer
I will admit up-front there are hundreds of people more qualified to analyze the legalities -- or illegalities -- of the Bush Administration’s much-debated domestic surveillance program. I will leave it up to those experts to reach a conclusion, but state my own belief that some sort of effective domestic surveillance program is necessary if America is to prevail in its war against Sunni militants. I also believe that it ought not to be beyond the wit of man to
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Bin Laden throws America a Life Preserver
by Dr. Michael Scheuer
White House Press Secretary Scott McClelland could not have been more correct when he said in response to Osama bin Laden’s new statement: “We don’t negotiate with terrorists, we put them out of business” -- a position that was immediately echoed by the president, the vice president, and their Democratic counterparts. America has, indeed, put terrorists out of business in the past, and if bin Laden,
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Critics of the Fourth Generation
by William Lind
Not surprisingly, the spread of the intellectual framework I call the Four Generations of Modern War has brought forth a host of reinterpreters and critics. Some have added valuable insights, while others have just muddied the waters. In the next On War columns,
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Missing Zawahiri - A Portent of America’s Defeat
by Dr. Michael Scheuer
Missing Zawahiri - A Portent of America’s Coming Defeat
In a country knowledgeable of history and with its head screwed on right, last week’s near-miss attack on the life of al-Qaeda deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri would have been greeted with a resounding hurrah, a hearty well done to the reported CIA gunners, and an sincere injunction to keep shooting. Worries about 17 dead
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The Fallacy of Nontrinitarian War
by Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II
Although the notion of nontrinitarian war has become popular over the last decade or so, it is actually nothing more than an attempt to negate a concept that was not properly understood in the first place. The misunderstanding began with historian Martin van Creveld’s misreading of what the famous Prussian theorist of war, Carl von Clausewitz,
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STRATFRO Geopolitical Diary: Friday, Jan. 20, 2006
by STRATFOR
Al Jazeera aired a new audiotape attributed to Osama bin Laden on Thursday. The speaker in the tape appears to address the American people, saying it is not post-9/11 security measures that have prevented follow-on attacks in the United States and threatening that more will be carried out. He also notes, however, that polls show the Americans do not support the war in Iraq and suggests the possibility of a long-term truce, provided the Americans withdraw their forces
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Thailand and the Possible Terrorist Threat to Tour
by STRATFOR
Australia's national daily The Australian reported Jan. 11 that two terrorism experts believe militants could be targeting tourists in Thailand. Although these perceived threats are not new -- appearing from time to time due to continued unrest in three southern provinces -- they cannot be ignored, given the nature of the potential targets.
The main militant threat in Thailand has been the violence that has raged in the country's
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The Taxonomic Obsession: Profiling as a 4GW Tactic
by Myke Cole
Ever since the 1992 Rodney King incident and the subsequent Los Angeles riots, racial profiling has been at the forefront of our national conscience. It has been a topic of heated debate for more than a decade.
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The Jihadist Threat in Iran
by STRATFOR
Jan 04, 2006
Summary
Iranian militants belonging to Jundallah, or the Organization of God, have kidnapped nine Iranian soldiers in order to pressure Tehran to free 16 jailed Jundallah members, according to a video aired by Al Arabiya television Jan. 4. The group likely is part of a transnational jihadist network operating along the tri-border area of Iran, Pakistan
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FEMA, Katrina and Lessons Learned
by H. Thomas Hayden
There is little doubt that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Emergency Response Teams were unprepared for a major disaster before hurricane Katrina on 29 August 2005. However, as one who worked in Katrina, Rita and Wilma, I can honestly say that FEMA and all related government agencies are now far more prepared than ever for a major man made or natural disaster.
I had the opportunity to volunteer through the Coast Guard Auxiliary
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Europe's Slow Response to the Militant Islamist Th
by STRATFOR
Dec 29, 2005
The government of Germany's Bavaria state shut down the Multi-Kultur Haus Islamic center near Munich on Dec. 28, citing the center's alleged links to militants. Meanwhile, Lower Saxony Interior Minister Uwe Schuenemann told German newspaper Die Welt that the government should consider electronically tagging known "Islamic militants" in Germany in order to monitor their movements. Germany, like other European countries, appears to be waking up to the security threat
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THE LAST RESORT
by Bob Pilgrim
Hope? – Slim To None
The slick Sikorsky had barely touched down and Roger and the general were jogging toward the segregated Tactical Operations Center. Command staffs were already assembled and Roger immediately asked for an updated situation and Intel dump. “Boss,” the operations agent addressed the ASAC (Assistant Special Agent In Charge) and all in attendance focused on the wall charts arrayed behind him as he began his briefing. The standard operations
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It Ain’t Fair
by William Lind
The suicide bombings in Jordan recently carried out by al Qaeda in Iraq seem to have blown back on the jihadis. According to Western press reports, almost all those killed were Moslems, including a Palestinian wedding party. Outrage among Jordanians has compelled al Qaeda to issue a quasi-apology, saying the wedding party was not its target. Had al-Zarqawi been
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The Terrorist Attack Cycle: Operational Planning
by STRATFOR
October 04, 2005 1659 GMT
Terrorist attacks often require meticulous planning and preparation. As we have said, this process takes place in a six-stage attack cycle:target selection, planning, deployment, the attack, escape and exploitation. After a target is selected and surveilled, operational planning for the actual attack begins.
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Meet the New War, Same as the Old War
by Myke Cole
“Attempting to visualize a Fifth Generation from where we are now is like trying to see the outlines of the Middle Ages from the vantage point of the late Roman Empire. There is no telescope that can reach so far.”
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BEST CASE/WORSE CASE IN IRAQ?
by H. Thomas Hayden
The simple answer for a best case scenario is that the Iraqis elect a secular, non-radical cleric dominated government, the Iraqi army and other security forces are fully trained and take over all security responsibilities and the Coalition leaves Iraq. The worse case scenario is that the Iraqis cannot agree on a secular form of government and the Shi’ite radical clerics with Iranian support take over the
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Applying 4GW Theory to The Intelligence Community
by Myke Cole
Introduction. Just a few months ago, a team of retired military officers representing three branches of the armed services gave an important presentation at the 16th Annual Army War College Strategy Conference at the Carlisle Barracks in Pennsylvania.[1] This presentation provided a number of forward thinking suggestions on how to reverse the setbacks the US is currently suffering in Iraq and Afghanistan, including real departures from present Department of Defense (DOD) official lines, such as
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OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES
by H. Thomas Hayden
By H. Thomas Hayden The “transformation in military affairs” has spawned many off shoots like information transformation, cognitive transformation and intelligence transformation. Nothing has been more surprising than the expansion of open source intelligence and information. A global industry in military and counter-terrorism intelligence published in open sources must rival the daily intelligence briefings provided by the Central Intelligence Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency and
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Introduction to Fourth Epoch War
by Dr. Robert J. Bunker
Fourth Epoch War theory was developed in 1987 for applied use by the US military, law enforcement, and governmental agencies against non-state threats. The analytical time span covered was from 500 BC to the post-modern era. The analysis considered matter-energy, space-time, and organizational-doctrinal analysis, derived from energy foundations of Western epochs and sub-epochal energy sequences. Baselines are grounded in the Classical and Medieval world, in addition to the
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Tancredo’s Real Point
by Dr. Michael Scheuer
Colorado Republican Congressman Thomas Tancredo injected some life into public debate in July by suggesting that America might bomb and annihilate the holy cities of Islam -- Mecca and Medina -- if al-Qaeda ever succeeds in detonating a nuclear device in a U.S. city. In the face of an al-Qaeda nuclear strike, Tancredo said, “you could take out their holy sites. Other than that, all you could do is tighten up internally.” Tancredo was immediately attacked by Muslim clerics worldwide, and the
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Dear 1st Responder: Welcome to the 21st Century
by Dr. Chet Richards
III
WINNING FOURTH GENERATION WARFARE
WHAT DOES “WIN” MEAN? If marines have become accustomed to easy victories over irregulars in the past, they must now prepare themselves for the increased effort which will be necessary to insure victory in the future. Marine Corps Small Wars Manual, 1940, p. 8.
No competent strategist believes that
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Dear 1st Responder: Welcome to the 21st Century
by Dr. Chet Richards
I
INTRODUCTION FIRST RESPONDERS: WARRIORS IN A MORTAL STRUGGLE It will be protracted, bloody, and horrible.1 First responders today must be feeling like inhabitants of some medieval castle: We've just defeated the neighboring baron, but arrows and stray boulders keep flying over the walls killing people and
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Against al-Qaeda
by Dr. Michael Scheuer
In all wars there is a tension between attacking the enemy where you can hurt him, and attacking him where you must hurt him. In America’s war against al-Qaeda this tension is especially acute, and it appears to be often resolved in favor of attacking the enemy wherever we can. Two current instances of this tendency are the U.S. military’s unfolding counter-terrorism program in West Africa -- termed the Pan-Sahel Initiative -- and the boiling debate over whether the U.S. and its allies should
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The Bottom Line
by Dr. Michael Scheuer
The Bottom Line: No Strategy Can Defeat an Enemy You Refuse to Understand
The list of topics sent for me to discuss in this session would have sufficed to fill a moderate-sized book. Among the topics were demographic changes and trends; evolution of terrorist tactics; differences between Shias and Sunnis; connections among terrorist groups; personality profiles of terrorist leaders; and terrorist communications. All of these items are knowable things and are easily available in open-source
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THE USE OF “TORTURE” IN INTERROGATION
by Maj. Anthony Milavic USMC(RET)
INTRODUCTION
“In every war but one that the United States has fought, the conduct
of those of its servicemen who were captured and held in enemy
prison camps presented no unforeseen problems to the armed forces
and gave rise to no particular concern in the country as a whole.. . .
That one war was the Korean War.”
In Every War But One1
Some 50 years later,
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COGNITIVE TRANSFORMATION IN 4GW
by H. Thomas Hayden
4th Generation Warfare is more than a new way of making war, it is a new way of thinking about war.
Military transformation has been at the forefront of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s stamp on the Depart of Defense and all the Armed Services. Military transformation has been defined as the act of creating and harnessing a “revolution in military affairs.” It is said to require the development of new technologies, operational concepts, and organizational structures to conduct combat
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Of Cabbages and Kings
by William Lind
Two weeks ago, a small, single-engine plane inadvertently strayed into the closed air space above Washington. The result was panic. Both the White House and the Capitol were evacuated, with police shouting “Run! Run!” at fleeing staffers and visitors. Senators and Congressmen abandoned in haste the floors of their respective Houses. Various RIPs (Really Important People) were escorted to their Fuehrerbunkers. F-16s came close to shooting the Cessna down.
The whole episode would have been funny
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The Matador's Dance Part III
by Major Mark C. Murphy USAF
The Matador: Managing Open Conflict with the US
Getting the US to commit forces is only half the battle. Once the US joins the battle, defeating it strategically requires careful management of the conflict to limit damage inflicted by US forces and discredit America’s efforts. In order to achieve this objective, one must remember that in 4th generation warfare, distinctions between military and civilians blur and wars are fought across the entire spectrum of conflict, and not just military
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The Matador's Dance Part II
by Major Mark C. Murphy USAF
The Capeadores: Studying American History and Tendencies
In “The American Way of War,” Russell Weigley argued that the US tendency throughout its history has been to wage wars of annihilation, where the goal was complete overthrow of the enemy and defeat of his armed forces. Since the advent of nuclear weapons, however, political restrictions have made it increasingly difficult for the US
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The Matador's Dance Part I
by Major Mark C. Murphy USAF
Preface
This paper was written during the buildup and execution of Operation Iraqi Freedom. My charge was to study American strengths and vulnerabilities through the eyes of an enemy, and identify possible avenues to exploit via 4th Generation Warfare. After writing this paper, I can say that the task wasn’t as easy as it sounds because it required finding faults within the nation I swore to defend. Yet if we don’t look
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Fighting in the Fifth Dimension
by Sid Heal
When Luke Helder was arrested in Colorado, he had already planted 18 pipe bombs in mailboxes throughout the Midwest and was on his way to California with six more. He was caught after a 40-mile chase at speeds of over 100 miles per hour. Particularly interesting is that he was stopped and released by police no less than three times in the days immediately preceding his arrest. What is even more noteworthy, however, is that his eventual arrest resulted because
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4GW KNOWS NO BORDERS
by H. Thomas Hayden
On January 12, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld dismissed as "nonsense" news reports that the Pentagon was debating a "Salvador option," in which U.S. Special Operations Forces or Iraqi special units would pursue insurgents into Syria. When asked whether this action had been considered, he said: "Why would I even talk about something like that?" What else was he going to say? Unfortunately, 4th Generation
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