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Fourth Epoch War References
by Dr. Robert Bunker
Fourth Epoch War Annotated References
Dr. Robert J. Bunker
bunker@law-west.org
Copyright April 2005
Counter-OPFOR Program
National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology CenterWest
El Segundo, CA 90245-4691
Fourth Epoch War Summary
Theory developed in 1987 for applied use by US military, law enforcement, and governmental agencies against non-state threats. Analytical time span covered from 500BC to post-modern era. Matter-energy, space-time, and organizational-doctrinal analysis derived from energy foundations of Western epochs and sub-epochal energy sequences.
Baselines are grounded in the Classical and Medieval world in addition to the Modernworld with change occurring at both epochal and sub-epochal levels. The theory identifies two earlier transformations of war (Classical to Medieval and Medieval to
Modern) as opposed to Martin van Crevelds one earlier transformation (Medieval to Modern) discussed in The Transformation of War. Advanced concepts concerning terrorist use of bond-relationship targeting, fifth dimensional battlespace, networks,
directed energy weaponry, criminal-soldier evolution, the emergence of new warmaking entities, mercenary proliferation and battlefield dominance, and counter-OPFOR strategies.
Books and Booklets
Robert J. Bunker, Editor. Networks, Terrorism and Global Insurgency. (London, UK: Routledge/Taylor & Francis. Awaiting Publication). Earlier published as a special issue of Low Intensity Conflict & Law Enforcement. Vol. 11. No. 2-3. (Summer/Fall 2002).
Author Note- Journal Dating is Behind. Project Finished in June 2004. Publication in Summer/Fall 2004.
Components: Networks, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (CONOPS), Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Follow on work to Non-State Threats and Future Wars. Another Alpha Team of contributors assembled for this project. The initial section concerns theory and international law, the second broad issues of terrorism and global insurgency, the third an al Qaeda network focus, and the fourth discusses networks and response networks. Contributors: Graham H. Turbiville, Jr., Stephen Sloan, Robert J. Bunker, John Arquilla, David F. Ronfeldt, Max G. Manwaring, Neal A. Pollard, John P. Sullivan, Sean K. Anderson, Andrew Garfield, Kimbra L. Fishel, Lisa J. Campbell, Matt Begert, and Mark
Galeotti.
Robert J. Bunker, Editor. TEW Group Reader 1997-2004: Toward a National Response Network. Occasional Paper 6. 2nd Edition. (Los Angeles, CA: National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center-- West. July 2004) pp. 1-208. [Public Safety Restricted]
Components: Networks, Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: This Occasional Paper is an anthology of presentations, writings andreferences to the concept of the Terrorism Early Warning (TEW) group and the Terrorism Early Warning Network (TEWN). The purpose of this Occasional Paper is to give the reader a basic understanding of the organization, function and purpose of this networked operational structure and to document its development for reference.Contributors: Multiple TEW Group cadre, outside commentaries.
Robert J. Bunker, Editor. Non-State Threats and Future Wars. (London, UK: Frank Cass, 2003) pp. 1-208. Earlier published as a special issue of Small Wars & Insurgencies.Vol. 13. No. 2. (Summer 2002).
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Crime-War Operational Environment, Intelligence Preparation for Operations, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers, Networks, Counter-OPFOR, Fifth (Five) Dimensional Battlespace, Bond-Relationship Targeting, Advanced Weaponry, Mercenaries
Abstract: World class team of defense and national security scholars and real-world military and law enforcement operators focusing on the topic of Non-State Threats and Future Conflict and Wars. The first section concerns theory, the second non-states threats and case studies, the third is based on counter-OPFOR strategies, and a fourth archive section.
Contributors: Phil Williams, David F. Ronfeldt, Robert J. Bunker, Martin van Creveld, Ralph Peters, Mark Galeotti, John P. Sullivan, Thomas K. Adams, Max G. Manwaring, Jasjit Singh, Russell W. Glenn, John B. Alexander, Charles Sid Heal, Matt
Begert, Dan Lindsay, T. Lindsay Moore, David P. Dilegge, and Matthew Van Konynenburg.
Robert J. Bunker. Tactical Laser Devices and Weapons: Guidebook for Law Enforcement. Occasional Paper 5. (Los Angeles, CA: National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center-- West. June 2002) pp. 1-122. [Law Enforcement
Restricted]
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use), Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Provides an emerging threats overview for law enforcement. The Occasional Paper discusses lasers used as weapons and laser weaponry, tactics and techniques, incidents of international and domestic use, and counter-measures.
John P. Sullivan et al. Janes Unconventional Weapons Response Handbook. (Alexandria, VA: Janes Information Group, 2002) pp. 1-313.
Components: Crime-War Operational Environment, Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers, Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: This work is intended for first responder use. It is meant to fill knowledge gaps concerning unconventional weapons and help in preparation, response and recovery from incidents involving such weapons. Weaponry includes improvised explosive devices (IEDs), conventional military weapons, radiological weapons, lasers, radio frequency and non-lethal weapons. Contributors: John P. Sullivan, Robert J. Bunker, Ernest J. Lorelli, Howard Seguine, Matt Begert, Roger Davies, James W. Malinoski, and David A. Kuhn.
Robert J. Bunker, Editor and Hakim Hazim, Researcher. Foreign OPFOR Reader: Radical Islamic and Al Qaeda Doctrine. Occasional Paper 3. (Los Angeles, CA: National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center (NLECTC) West.
February 2002) pp. 1-273. [Law Enforcement Restricted]
Components: Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (CONOPS)
Abstract: Radical Islamic and al Qaeda documents collected during the Summer of 2001 off of Jihadi websites. Includes sections of the al Qaeda military manual released in December 2001.
Robert J. Bunker, Editor. Airport and Aviation Terrorism: Reference Guidebook. Occasional Paper 2. (Los Angeles, CA: National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center (NLECTC) West. March 2001) pp. 1-244. [Public Safety Restricted Annex]
Components: Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use), Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Open source reference listing of airport and aviation terrorism topics and author reference listing. Subjects include conventional and advanced weaponry, CBRN, air base defense, screening and access control, bomb dogs, skyjacking, and disaster management and response. Contains limited distribution document listing annex. Contributors: Matt Begert, Dan Lindsay, John P. Sullivan, Dick Taylor, and Robert J. Bunker.
Robert J. Bunker, Editor. Less-Than-Lethal Weapons: Reference Guidebook. Occasional Paper 1. Version 1.1. (Los Angeles, CA: National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center-- West. March 2001) pp. 1-180. [Public Safety Restricted Annex]
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Open source reference listing of less-than-lethal weapons, and organizational and conceptual references. Subjects include PPE/countermeasures, kinetic, electrical, acoustic, radiofrequency, optical and multisensory devices, governmental agencies and groups documents, allied coalitions and nations documents, and concepts. Contains limited distribution document listing annex. Contributors: John Alexander, Matt Begert, Abe Flatau, Charles Sid Heal, Steve Ijames, and Robert J. Bunker.
Robert J. Bunker, Editor. Nonlethal Weapons: Terms and References. Occasional Paper, No. 15. (U.S. Air Force Academy, CO: Institute for National Security Studies. July 1997) pp. 1-80.
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use),
Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to promote an understanding of and research into a new category of weapons, designated nonlethal by the military services. Terms listing of nonlethal weapons and concepts and references listing. Contributors: John B. Alexander, Rex Applegate, Jon B. Becker, Matt Begert, Jaime H. Cuadros, Abe Flatau,
Charles Sid Heal, and Robert J. Bunker.
Robert J. Bunker. Catastrophic Defeat in War, Weapon System Life Cycles, Energy Threshold Advancement and Political Change: A Case Study of Brandenburg-Prussia, 928-1815. Doctoral Dissertation. (Claremont, CA: The Claremont Graduate University. January 1993) pp. 1-304.
Components: Catastrophic Defeat in War, Weapons System Life Cycles, Sub-Epochs (Vassal, Feudal, Dynastic, Absolutist, Corporate), Concept of the Soldier, Energy (Motive) Foundations of War
Abstract: This dissertation examines the effects of catastrophic defeat in war in stimulating political change. A catastrophic defeat is viewed as a crisis causing event for a political community. It results in the prevailing concept of the soldier, which serves as an inhibitor to military change, being destroyed. Change, now no longer inhibited, comes to the military system of the polity by means of weapon system developments based on advances in energy. These weapon system developments, witnessed by weapon system life cycles, generate changes in the entire structure of the military system. With change
having come to the military system it is in turn transmitted to the administrative and economic systems of the political community. Author noteAllowed for sub-epochal (modal warfare) modeling of Brandenburg-Prussia from 928-1815 for Fourth Epoch War research purposes.
Robert J. Bunker. The Soviet Hegemony and Linkages to Subnationals (Terrorist and Guerrilla Groups). Master's Thesis. (Claremont, CA: The Claremont Graduate University. January 1987) pp. 1-195.
Components: Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers, Networks
Abstract: Link analysis of the Soviet Union to client states and client states to terrorist and guerrilla groups. Sub-national (non-state) links focused on ideology, arms transfers, training, and intelligence. Author notein retrospect an early and primitive attempt at star hub network mapping. Provided indications and warnings of non-state threat potentials for the author.
Chapters and Papers
Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan. Suicide Bombings in Operation Iraqi Freedom. Land Warfare Land Warfare Paper W46. Arlington, VA: Institute of Land Warfare, September 2004: 1-22. With John P. Sullivan. Reprint in Military Review. January- February 2005. pp. 69-79. Placed in The U.S. Army Professional Writing Collection, 1 April 2005. Vol. 3.3., US Army Website, army.mil.
Components: Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use), Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (CONOPS)
Abstract: Since 9/11, U.S. military forces have engaged in battles against radical Islamic (jihadi) networks and their allies globally. Suicide bombings continue to be one of the dominant techniques encountered by U.S. Army and allied forces when engaging these opponents. In fact, these bombings are being used with increasing frequency. Suicide bombing can be defined as a criminal-warfighting technique because it almost always falls within the not crime and not war overlap of nonstate opposing force operations. Prior to 9/11, this operational environment, and the nonstate forces that flourish within it,
were considered to fall within the domain of operations other than war and, more recently, stability and support operations. The realization now exists that a new form of warfare has arisen between nation-states and opposing nonstate entities. The jihadicriminal- insurgent mix challenges civil governance and the rule of law. Military forces cannot reconstruct civil society alone. The Iraqi experience demonstrates the need for expanded constabulary forces and the integration of military units, intelligence, police forces, planning and operations in concert with (or supporting the formation of) civil authorities.
G.I. Wilson, John P. Sullivan, and Hal Kempfer. The Changing Nature of warfare requires New Intelligence-Gathering Techniques. in Louise I. Gerdes (Ed.), Espionage and Intelligence Gathering (Current Controversies Series). Farmington
Hills, MI: Greenhaven Press, 2004. Reprint of Fourth Generation Warfare: It's Here, and We Need New Intelligence-Gathering Techniques for Dealing with it. Armed Forces Journal International. October 2002.
Components: Networks, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers, Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Describes challenges related to non-state actors in global conflicts. Examines warfighting capabilities of terrorists, gangs, organized crime, warlords, and insurgents from a Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) perspective. Suggests networked intelligence model and new tools to understand and address the evolving 4GW threat environment.
Robert J. Bunker. Operational Advantages of Networked Organisational Structures in Future Conflict and War. Jasjit Singh, Editor. Reshaping Asian Security. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). (New Dehli, India: Knowledge World. June 2001) pp. 250-260.
Components: Networks, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (CONOPS), Enhanced Humans
Abstract: Follow on to Networked Threats to Governments: Dynamics, Emergence, and Response. Provides an in depth analysis of specific operational advantages of networks along with sections on networked organizational structures and their potential strategic level implications.
John P. Sullivan. Gangs, Hooligans, and Anarchists--The Vanguard of Netwar in the streets. Chapter Four in John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt (Eds.), Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime and Militancy. Santa Monica: RAND, 2001.
On line at http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1382/MR1382.ch4.pdf
Components: Networks, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers, Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Examines evolving netwar capacities of non-state actors. Updates and expands author's earlier works on street gang evolution. Defines and describes Third Generation Gangs, using the extent of political activity, geographic scope, and
sophistication to discrimianate among gang generations. Suggests potential counternetwar intelligence organization and methods.
Robert J. Bunker. Networked Threats to Governments: Dynamics, Emergence, and Response. Emil Grnerup, Editor. Proceedings from the Conference Armed Conflicts Stockholm 17 October 2000. FOA-R-01693-201-SE. (Defence Research
Establishment, Division of Defence Analysis (FOA 1): Stockholm, Sweden. December 2000) pp. 69-86.
Components: Crime-War Operational Environment, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Evolutionary Patterns), Networks, Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Provides a definition of networked threats, their dynamics, emergence and suggested governmental response. Networked threat index (I-IV) and strategic and operational response suggestions (Fig. 4).
Robert J. Bunker. Non-Lethal Weapons: Terms and Definitions. Malcolm Dando, Editor. Non-Lethal Weapons: Technological and Operational Prospects. Janes Special Report. (London, England: Janes Information Systems. November 2000) pp. 134-155.
Components: Advanced Weaponry
Abstract: Edited term and definitions listing from Nonlethal Weapons: Terms and References utilized in this work.
Robert J. Bunker. Training Key #523: Laser Threats to Law Enforcement. (Alexandria, VA: International Association of Chiefs of Police. November 2000) pp. 1-6.
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use), Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Early warning to law enforcement officers concerning lasers threats provided in this work. Contains introduction and sections on types and availability of lasers, lasers dangers to officers, laser employment against law enforcement, tactical employment and operational scenarios, laser countermeasures, and points of contact.
Robert J. Bunker and Steven F. Marin. Executive Outcomes: Mercenary Corporation OSINT Guide. (Fort Leavenworth, KS: Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) Website. November 2000) Access via http://call.army.mil/call/fmso/fmsopubs/merc.htm.
Components: Mercenaries
Abstract: The open source references contained in this resource guide pertain to the recently defunct South Africa based mercenary corporation Executive Outcomes (EO) which operated as mining and oil industry shock troops. The references span the 1994 through 1999 period and contain the following categories: EO Homepage and Documents, Traditional Sources, and Website and Electronic Sources.
Robert J. Bunker. Information Operations and the Conduct of Land Warfare. Land Warfare Paper, No. 31. (Arlington, VA: Association of the United States Army, Institute of Land Warfare. October 1998) pp. 1-21. Reprinted in Military Review. Vol.
78. No. 5. (September-October-November1998) pp. 4-17.
Components: Advanced Weaponry
Abstract: The central argument developed in this paper concerns whether information operations will be an adjunct to current operational methods, basically a force multiplier, or a totally new operational mechanism which will provide warfighting capabilities which heretofore did not exist. Both schools of thought are analyzed in this paper along with a discussion of information operations definitions and target sets and the land warfare implications of information operations.
Robert J. Bunker. Minimanual of Drug Trafficking Organization (DTO) Disruption. Report prepared for Tucson/Pima County, Metropolitan Area Narcotics Trafficking Interdiction Squads (MANTIS): Tucson, AZ. (November 1998) pp. 1-26. [Law
Enforcement Restricted]
Components: Counter-OPFOR, Bond-Relationship Targeting
Abstract: Provides bond-relationship targeting concepts and examples of how it can be applied against drug trafficking organizations.
Robert J. Bunker. Five-Dimensional (Cyber) Warfighting: Can the Army After Next be Defeated Through Complex Concepts and Technologies? (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute. March 10, 1998) pp. 1-42.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Crime-War Operational Environment, Fifth (Five) Dimensional Battlespace, Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers, Mercenaries, Bond-Relationship Targeting, Cybershielding, Networks
Abstract: He expounds a scenario in which a future enemy (BlackFor) concedes that the U.S. Armys (BlueFor) superior technology, advanced weaponry, and proven record of success in recent military operations make it virtually invulnerable to conventional forms of symmetric attack. Therefore, BlackFor seeks asymmetric ways to obviate BlueFor's advantages. BlackFor devises a five-dimensional, holistic approach to warfare that uses the three [spatial dimensions] but also incorporates the temporal and cyber dimensions of warfare. It posits not a new peer competitor for the United States, but a new type of enemy for which, in Dr. Bunkers view, we will be ill-prepared, given our likely force development azimuths over the next two decades.
Robert J. Bunker. Chapter 10: Technology in a Neo-Clausewitzian Setting. Gert de Nooy, Editor. The Clausewitzian Dictum and the Future of Western Military Strategy. (The Hague, The Netherlands: Kluwer Law International, 1997) pp. 137-165.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Fifth (Five) Dimensional Battlespace (Early),
Advanced Weaponry, Networks
Abstract: This chapter evaluates the impact of technology on the requirements for the future use of military armed force(s) in the context of a Western security strategy. A comparison of Clausewitzian and neo-Clausewitzian spatial interpretations of the battlefield is provided to contrast these competing perceptions of warfare and explain why traditional assumptions regarding the material means necessary for contingency missions must be fully reconceptualized.
Robert J. Bunker and T. Lindsay Moore. Nonlethal Technology and Fourth Epoch War:
A New Paradigm of Politico-Military Force. Land Warfare Paper, No. 23. (Arlington,
VA: Association of the United States Army, Institute of Land Warfare. February 1996)
pp. 1-17.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Advanced Weaponry
Abstract: The authors of this work argue by means of Fourth Epoch War theory that the introduction of nonlethal technology on the battlefield will be as significant as the introduction of gunpowder during the European Renaissance. If these authors are
accurate in this projection, it will mean the Army, within the context of Force XXI, will be required to cope with both an entirely new concept of politico-military force and the emerging ethical debate which will surround its development. The paper includes a 21st Century Politico-Military Force Spectrum matrix.
Articles and Essays
Sid Heal. Fighting in the Fifth Dimension. U.S. Cavalry On Point: CounterTerrorism Journal. April 2005. uscav.com.
Components: Fifth (Five) Dimensional Battlespace, Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Discussion of law enforcement applications of fifth dimensional battlespace. Uses the arrest of Luke Helder as an example of the usefulness of this concept. Goes on to discuss how to dominate cyberspace for law enforcement purposes.
LtCol Lance R. Blyth, USMC. Rest in Peace, Major Conventional War. Military Review. Review Essay. November-December 2004. pp. 78-81.
Components: Theoretical Analysis, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers
Abstract: Review of Non-State Threats and Future Wars focusing on Martin van Crevelds and Ralph Peters essays. Also a discussion of various non-state threats and counterstrategies.
Sid Heal. 21st Century Tactics: Fighting in the Fifth Dimension. The Tactical Edge. (Winter 2003) pp. 21-25.
Components: Fifth (Five) Dimensional Battlespace, Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Assuming no military experience and using actual situations, this article describes the impact of five-dimensional battlespace in domestic law enforcement operations and why it is important, especially in combating terrorism. Identifies and
describes a human sensing dimensional barrier as a dynamic and contested frontier between opposing forces and concludes with insight on maneuvering through and dominating all five dimensions, as well as the significance for everything from gathering intelligence to developing tactics and strategies to exploiting new technologies.
Robert J. Bunker. Terrorism and Law Enforcement, pp. 560-562. and Terrorism, Counter-terrorism and Technology, pp. 563-565. Encyclopedia of World Terrorism. Santa Barbara, CA: ME Sharpe, Inc. James Ciment, ed. February 2003.
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers, Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: These articles discuss law enforcement views on terrorism, waves of terrorist technology use, faster law enforcement operational cycles, less lethal and hyper lethal weapons, fifth dimensional battlespace, and counter-Netwar.
Robert J. Bunker. Radio Frequency Weapons: Issues and Potentials. The Journal of California Law Enforcement. Vol. 36. No. 1. (March 2001) pp. 6-17.
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use),
Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: The article provides an overview of RFW, discusses types and availability of RFW and their advantages, RFW dangers to electronics, RFW influence on targets, law enforcement tactical employment, criminal/OPFOR use and operational scenarios, RFW countermeasures and points-of-contact.
Robert J. Bunker. Criminals and Laserarms: Counter-optical Tactics. The Tactical Edge. Vol. 18. No. 4. (Fall 2000) pp. 45-48.
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use)
Abstract: An article which provides SWAT personnel with a listing of tactic types that criminals and criminal-soldiers armed with lasers may employ. Allows for the generation of countermeasures to criminal and criminal-soldier counter-optical tactics.
Robert J. Bunker. Unrestricted Warfare: Review Essay I. Vol. 11. No. 1. Small Wars and Insurgencies. (Spring 2000) pp. 114-121.
Components: Counter-OPFOR, Theoretical Analysis
Abstract: This article provides background, overview, analysis, and concluding assessment of the Chinese work Unrestricted Warfare published in 1999. Robert J. Bunker and Dan Lindsay. The Laser Threat to California Airborne Law Enforcement.
The Journal of California Law Enforcement. Vol. 34. No. 2 (March- April 2000) pp. 12-20.
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use), Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Article written to provide early warning to California law enforcement concerning laser threats. Discusses the laser as a weapon, past laser use against law enforcement, recent Southern California incidents, and suggested response.
Robert J. Bunker. Weapons of Mass Disruption and Terrorism. Terrorism and Political Violence. Vol. 12. No. 1 (Spring 2000) pp. 37-46.
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Bond-Relationship Targeting, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use)
Abstract: New perceptions of weaponry have developed in some counter-terrorism circles, based on the concept of Weapons of Mass Disruption that target bonds and relationships, rather than things, at the systemic level. These capabilities are derived, in many instances, from advanced (cyber) forms of weapons that could eventually be employed by terrorists against the United States.
Robert J. Bunker. Unconventional Warfare Philosophers. Small Wars and Insurgencies. Vol. 10. No. 3. (Winter 1999) pp. 137-150.
Components: Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers, Counter-OPFOR, Theoretical Analysis
Abstract: The philosophies of unconventional warfare philosophers can be divided into four schools. The classicists, or early school, represented by Sun Tzu and his 'indirect approach', have existed for thousands of years. Marxist-Leninist revolutionaries gave new emphasis to unconventional warfare as a vehicle for revolution. The theories of these philosophers of the middle school were opposed by those of counter-revolutionaries. With the end of the Cold War, a new strategic environment is emerging, giving rise to new school philosophers reacting to that challenge. They include both those who seek to undermine the nation-state and those, who, like the earlier counter-revolutionaries, seek to defend and promote its interests.
Robert J. Bunker. Higher Dimensional Warfighting. Military Review. Vol. 79. No. 5. (September-October 1999) pp. 53-62.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Fifth (Five) Dimensional Battlespace, Bond- Relationship Targeting, Cybershielding
Abstract: This article questions American military perceptions articulated in Joint Vision 2010 and Concept for Future Joint Operations: Expanding Joint Vision 2010. These documents are designed to achieve the required capabilities for the challenges that our nation faces in the 21st century. These visions it is argued increasingly speak more to the present era than to the emerging one. The article is divided into an introductory section and sections on linear and nonlinear dimensional futures, five-dimensional (cyber) battlespace, bond-relationship targeting, cybershielding and warfighting implications.
Robert J. Bunker. Enhanced and Unenhanced Humans: The Social Classes of a Dark Renaissance. Crime & Justice International Online. (3 September 1999) pp. 1- 5. Access via http://oicj.acsp.uic.edu/spearmint/public/pubs/cjfarrago/cjf_enhanced.cfm
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Enhanced Humans
Abstract: This essay discussed differences in the past epochs of Western civilization focusing on social class structures. Raised concerns over the development of post-modern haves and have-nots differentiated by access to bio-technical devices and products (computer implants, wetware, gene therapy, etc).
Robert J. Bunker. Criminals and Laser Pointers: Tactical Concerns Over Emergent Laserarms. The Tactical Edge. Vol. 17. No. 2 (Spring 1999) pp. 80-85.
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use)
Abstract: An overview and introduction for SWAT personnel to the eye damage potentials of lasers. Provides an overview of laser pointers types, tactical employment, and concerns over criminal use.
Robert J. Bunker. Defending Against the Non-State (Criminal) Soldier: Toward a Domestic Response Network. The Police Chief. Vol. 65. No. 11 (November 1998) pp. 41-49. Reprinted in Walter J. Boyne, Ed. Todays Best Military Writing. (New York, NY: A Forge Book, 2004) pp. 255-268.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Crime-War Operational Environment, Non-State
(Criminal) Soldiers, Mercenaries, Networks, Counter-OPFOR
Abstract: Provides an overview to law enforcement readers concerning the threat posed by emergence of the non-state (criminal) soldier. The article is divided into an introductory section and sections on the non-state (criminal) soldier, nation-state capability gap, private security and mercenaries, the need for a domestic response network, early domestic response network examples, the Ricin alert incident, and conclusions. Embedded in the article is an overview sidebar that discusses the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning Group.
Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan. Cartel Evolution: Potentials and Consequences. Transnational Organized Crime. Vol. 4. No. 2 (Summer 1998) pp. 54- 74.
Components: Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Evolutionary Patterns), Networks
Abstract: Within this transitional period -- a dark Renaissance -- transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are among the first to adapt to the new structures. This contribution examines the journey of one type of TCO -- the drug cartel -- through this evolution. Three cartel phases are identified. The First Phase Cartel, a hierarchical aggressive competitor and the Second Phase Cartel, an internetted subtle co-opter already exist. Respectively, they provide direct and indirect challenges to the integrity of nation-state institutions. The Third Phase Cartel is a potential criminal state successor. This criminal
state successor, emerging as a criminal free state or enclave, could possibly assert itself as a new war-making entity, challenging contemporary nation-states.
Robert J. Bunker. The New Gunpowder Revolution. The Police Chief. Vol. 65. No. 6 (June 1998) p. 49.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Advanced Weaponry
Abstract: Explains how less-than-lethal weapons will be as significant to post-modern conflict as firearms and cannon (gunpowder weapons) were to modern conflict.
Robert J. Bunker. Terrorist Laser Employment Against Civil Aviation: Issues, Concerns, and Potential Incidents. Transit Policing. Vol. 8. No. 1. (Spring 1998) pp. 7-8, 21-28.
Components: Advanced Weaponry, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use)
Abstract: This article discusses potential terrorist use of lasers against civil aviation. It is divided into sections discussing the laser as a weapon against aircraft, laser classes and accessibility, past laser illumination and lasing of aircraft, recent lasing of aircraft in Los Angeles, and future possibilities.
Robert J. Bunker. Cycles of War? Armed Forces Journal International. Letter. Vol. 135. No. 2 (September 1997) p. 4.
Components: Theoretical Analysis
Abstract: Critical analysis of Gen. Robert Scales Cycles of War which is viewed as being based upon improper historical modeling of warfare over a 132-year timeframe. Suggests that larger time frames are required for modal warfare analysis.
Robert J. Bunker. Failed-State Operational Environment Concepts. Military Review. Insights. Vol. 77. No. 5 (September-October 1997) pp. 90-92.
Components: Crime-War Operational Environment, Bond-Relationship Targeting, Epochal Change/RPMA
Abstract: Response to LTCOL John B. Hunt, USA (Ret.) MR article of September- October 1996 which was a commentary of the authors Rethinking OOTW November- December 1995 MR article. This article discusses Hunts insights and then goes on to describe the failed-state operational environment, initial perceptions of bond-relationship targeting, the Fourth Epoch transition and early Army stability and support operations (SASO) concepts.
Robert J. Bunker. Epochal Change: War Over Social and Political Organization. Parameters. Vol. 27. No. 2 (Summer 1997) pp. 15-25.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers, Mercenaries
Abstract: Speculates on the existence of an historical cycle at least a millennium old between order and chaos, and that it may now be shifting away from stability towards chaos, suggesting that the nation-state may be entering a period in which its usefulness as a concept for organizing societies will be severely challenged (p15). Considers the implications of such a shift for the nature and exercise of military power, and for the rules of war, noting how historically all struggles between the old and the new order have witnessed the latter's preparedness to challenge the formers battlefield dominance by not playing by the rules: The challenge to legitimacy of the nation-state will come from armed non-state actors intent on legitimizing forms of behavior that current societies consider to be criminal or morally bankrupt (p19). It is important for military planners to recognize such actors and not merely mis-label them as 'criminals', and to understand that the logic of the Clausewitzian center of gravity -- useful in conflict against symmetrical adversaries -- may prove difficult, if not impossible, to apply effectively against them (p21).
Robert J. Bunker. Technology and Transit Terrorism: Trends and Possibilities. Transit Policing. Vol. 7. No. 1 (Spring 1997) pp. 14-23.
Components: Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Weaponry Use)
Abstract: This article looks at how terrorism is changing, the specific transit facility/system target sets that can be attacked, and current technology employment in transit terrorism. Based on this analysis, projections concerning trends and possibilities of technology in transit terrorism are made.
Robert J. Bunker. The Terrorist: Soldier of the Future? Special Warfare. (Winter 1997) pp. 7-11.
Components: Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers
Abstract: This essay looks at the terrorist from the perspective of a soldier rather than that of a criminal. Discusses attributes of the advanced form of soldier the terrorist possess and the resulting warfighting implications. Concludes with the effects this will have on American society and the projected role special-operations forces will increasingly have against terrorists.
Robert J. Bunker. Counter-Optical Lasers and OPFOR. Red Thrust Star. (January 1997) pp. 11-13.
Components: Advanced Weaponry
Abstract: Counter-optical laser simulation is currently omitted from the realistic training provided to combined arms and services brigades and regiments rotated through the National Training Center (NTC). The Krasnovians are not inhibited by Western ethical constraints. Therefore, in pursuit of an operational edge, they can be expected to employ advanced weaponry which they obtain, such as counter-optical lasers, without moral reservation. If our soldiers are expected to face the rigors that the future battlefield holds, then simulating the use of these lasers by an opposing force would appear prudent.
Capt. Lance R. Blyth (USMCR) and Brian T. Carey. Changing Frames of Reference: Recommended Readings in Military History in Preparation for Fourth Epoch War. Marine Corps Gazette. Vol. 80. No. 10. (October 1996) pp. 33-34.
Components: Sub-Epochs
Abstract: Provides readings for each of the Fourth Epoch War sub-epochs listed in the September 1994 article The Transition to Fourth Epoch War Marine Corps Gazette.
Robert J. Bunker. Advanced Battlespace and Cybermaneuver Concepts: Implications for Force XXI. Parameters. Vol. 26. No. 3 (Autumn 1996) pp. 108-120.
Components: Fifth (Five) Dimensional Battlespace (Early), Cybermaneuver
Abstract: This article argues that the traditional perception of the battlefield reveals the limiting assumptions upon which Force XXI is built, that it is constrained by its three dimensions, and that it is most likely outmoded. Paradoxically, it is the rise of non- Western warfare and the proliferation of advanced weaponry that together have made current spatial concepts of the modern battlefield obsolete. Authors noteearly fifth dimensional battlespace concepts devoid of time as a dimensional component. As a result only four dimensions are discussed.
Robert J. Bunker. RPMA Update. Airpower Journal. Ricochets. Vol. 10. No. 2 (Summer 1996) pp. 3, 117.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Sub-Epochs, Theoretical Analysis
Abstract: This article is an update to the Spring 1996 Generations, Waves, and Epochs: Modes of Warfare and the RPMA Airpower Journal article. It discusses Russian Sixth Generation Warfare theory and Andrew Krepinevichs Fall 1994 From Cavalry to Computer National Interest article.
Robert J. Bunker. Street Gangs: Future Paramilitary Groups? The Police Chief. Vol. 63. No. 6. (June 1996) pp. 54-59.
Components: Non-State (Criminal) Soldiers (Evolutionary Patterns)
Abstract: Discusses street gangs, emergent warfighting themes, reevaluating terrorism, implications, and conclusions. Early research into potentials of street gang evolution into criminal-soldiers.
Robert J. Bunker. Internetted Structures and C2 Nodes. Military Intelligence. Vol. 22., No. 2 (April-June 1996) pp. 26-27.
Components: Networks
Abstract: Essay written in response to the article by Captains Bruce Niedrauer and Lisa Bennett Center of Gravity. Military Intelligence (April-June 1995). Questions the utility of the center of gravity concept against complex, adaptive armies which utilize internetted structures. Suggests the feasibility of an operational concept based on that of a C2 nodal strike. Author noteRepresented pre bond-relationship targeting thinking.
Robert J. Bunker. Generations, Waves, and Epochs: Modes of Warfare and the RPMA. Airpower Journal. Vol. 10., No. 1 (Spring 1996) pp. 18-28.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Sub-Epochs, Theoretical Analysis
Abstract: Article written in response to Col. Owen E. Jensen, USAF Information Warfare: Principles of Third-Wave War. Airpower Journal (Winter 1994). The article compares and contrasts Fourth Generation Warfare, Fourth Epoch War and Third Wave War. It suggests that the methodology behind each dominant theory of future war should be explored before the Air Force openly embraces the Tofflerian trinity. This article provides an overview and synopsis of each competing theory, discusses its impact and shortcomings, and offers a limited conceptual comparison so that more informed decisions can begin to be independently made. Author note-- This essay was adapted from a lecture given in the National Security Studies MA program at California State University, San Bernardino, in the spring of 1995.
Robert J. Bunker. Don't Ritualize Armor: Let's Keep Tanks in a Balanced Perspective. Armed Forces Journal International. Commentary. Vol. 133., No. 7 (February 1996) p. 10.
Components: Weapons System Life Cycles
Abstract: Commentary on Lt.Gen Don Pihls (USA- Ret.) Dont Write Off Armor commentary in Armed Forces Journal International (November 1995). Compares the life cycle of the tank to that of the knight and suggests that we should not ritualize the use of the tank in the future. The essay casts doubts on the need for new tanks beyond that of
the M-1 Abrams.
Robert J. Bunker. Rethinking OOTW. Military Review. Vol. 75. No. 6 (November- December 1995) pp. 34-41.
Components: Crime-War Operational Environment
Abstract: The OOTW concept's fundamental flaw is that it is based on -- and is a derivative of -- the Army's Clausewitzian definition of war. It is a definition now seriously challenged by recent historical events and military scholarship. US military
doctrine should be revised to reflect the possibility that conflict and violence may be a natural condition in the Third World security environment, envisaging two distinct models (1) a traditional Clausewitzian model for operations in the Western and Westerninfluenced world (2) a non-traditional model, for operations in a non-Western world against an inchoate opposition where violence is not being committed as an instrument of policy by a sovereign will, but reflects tribal and cultural strife.
Robert J. Bunker. U.S. Must Seize the Future With Tactical Laser Development. Defense News. Commentary. August 28-September 3, 1995. pp. 15, 19.
Components: Advanced Weaponry
Abstract: Discusses the critical need for the U.S. to obtain dominance in tactical laser weapons. These weapons represent an evolutionary follow on to conventional firearms. U.S. development and deployment of them should not be obstructed by international law.
Robert J. Bunker. The Tofflerian Paradox. Military Review. Insights. Vol. 75. No. 3 (May-June 1995) pp. 99-102.
Components: Theoretical Analysis
Abstract: Suggests that the US Army leadership is going overboard for the concepts advanced by Alvin & Heidi Toffler in War and Anti-War (1993). With an invalid Tofflerian war form typology and strong suspicion cast over their civilization waves
applicability to Western history, one can see that a conceptual potential blind spot exists within the RMA literature adopted by the Army.
Robert J. Bunker. The Transition to Fourth Epoch War. Marine Corps Gazette. Vol. 78., No. 9 (September 1994) pp. 20-32.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Sub-Epochs, Weapons System Life Cycles, Concept of the Soldier, Theoretical Analysis
Abstract: Analysis of the October 1989 Marine Corps Gazette (& Military Review) article The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation. This article then provides a discussion of Fourth Epoch War theory. This discussion centers on the energy foundations of war, epochal change, Fourth Epoch War projections and a conclusion.
Robert J. Bunker. The Future Soldier System: An Energy Perspective. Army RD&A Bulletin. (September-October 1994) pp. 42-44.
Components: Energy (Motive) Foundations of War
Abstract: Analysis of the future soldier system by viewing Classical, Medieval and Modern soldier energy and applying that analysis to future soldier energy based on parametric model scenarios from 1994 and 1998.
T. Lindsay Moore. The Structure of War. Unpublished Manuscript. (Claremont, CA: The Claremont Graduate University. 1987). A section of this work was later published in Robert J. Bunker, Editor. Non-State Threats and Future Wars. (London, UK: Frank Cass, 2003) pp. 159-170.
Components: Epochal Change/RPMA, Energy (Motive) Foundations of War, Concept of the Soldier
Abstract: Discusses a proposal for the study of war, the epochs of Western civilization, the implications of wars of efficiency [RMA] and wars of destiny [RPMA], and how wars of destiny should be studied.
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