Print

The Jihadist Threat in Iran
by STRATFOR

Jan 04, 2006
Summary

Iranian militants belonging to Jundallah, or the Organization of God, have kidnapped nine Iranian soldiers in order to pressure Tehran to free 16 jailed Jundallah members, according to a video aired by Al Arabiya television Jan. 4. The group likely is part of a transnational jihadist network operating along the tri-border area of Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Though the current level of jihadist activity in Iran is minimal, Tehran could face a bigger threat down the road should jihadist militants along the Islamic republic's eastern frontier strike a deal with Iran's Balochi minority to target the Iranian regime.
Analysis

A video aired by Al Arabiya television Jan. 4 showed nine Iranian soldiers held captive by members of a militant group called Jundallah, or the Organization of God. The television network did not say when the kidnapping occurred, but did report that the militants seized the soldiers and their ammunition in a province bordering Pakistan. Pakistani forces are assisting Iranian authorities in locating the hostages and hunting down the kidnappers, who threatened to kill the soldiers and demanded that Tehran release imprisoned Jundallah members.

A group operating under the Jundallah name also kidnapped an Iranian security agent in June and threatened to kill him unless the Iranian government released the group's jailed members. On July 12, the group released a video showing the execution of the Iranian security agent. Both Jundallah videos aired by Al Arabiya showed the armed militants dressed in tribal robes with black cloth covering their faces, similar to the hostage videos filmed in Iraq.

"Jundallah" is a generic name adopted by several militant Islamist groups. Organizations by the same name are known to recruit disaffected Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants and have cells set up in Egypt and the Palestinian territories. The group behind the Iranian kidnappings, however, is likely tied to jihadist elements operating along the tri-border area of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. This restive area along Iran's sparsely populated eastern border is a haven for jihadists and bandits who traverse the maze of drug-smuggling routes with relative ease.

Jundallah was reportedly born out of militant training camps in South Waziristan in Pakistan and has probable ties to regional militant Islamist groups Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Harkat-ul-Jihad e-Islami. The group is allegedly linked to the string of attacks on senior Pakistani leaders including President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, his deputy military chief Gen. Ahsan Saleem Hayat, and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. Senior al Qaeda leader Khalid Sheikh Mohammad's nephew was arrested for his involvement with Jundallah in the 2004 Karachi car bombings.

Iran has been largely successful in deterring jihadist activity in the Shiite heartland thus far. The Iranian government played a complex game in containing al Qaeda following the Sept. 11 attacks. Many senior al Qaeda militants sought refuge in the Islamic republic and were likely welcomed by a special cell of the country's elite military unit -- the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps -- when they fled Afghanistan in the wake of the U.S. invasion in October 2001. Tehran then used lower-level al Qaeda operatives as bargaining chips in negotiating with the United States on Iraq by handing them back to their resident countries when it became convenient.

The political machine is beginning to function in Baghdad, and al Qaeda commanders are increasingly aware that Tehran is engaged in back-channel talks with Washington, causing concern for al Qaeda members currently being held in Iran. This recently came to light in a letter purportedly written by deputy al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri to Iraq's al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, in which al-Zawahiri urges al-Zarqawi to resist targeting Shia in Iraq to avoid inviting repercussions for the more than 100 jihadist prisoners held in Iran. Al-Zawahiri went on to say that even if attacking the Shia is necessary, publicizing the attacks will incite Iran "to take countermeasures." Those believed to be in Iranian custody include al Qaeda spokesman Suleiman Abu Ghaith, al Qaeda's military chief Saif al-Adel and two of Osama bin Laden's sons.
Jundallah members likely staged the recent kidnappings to campaign for the release of their members and al Qaeda members being held in Iran. As the jihadist threat escalates, the Iranian government also faces the danger of local jihadists linking up with ethnic Balochi militants in Iran's southeastern province of Sistan and Balochistan, where lawlessness prevails. Iran's oppressed Balochi minority probably would have few qualms about teaming up with Sunni militants in order to destabilize the Iranian regime. Such an arrangement would have serious consequences for the Islamic republic's ability to keep domestic matters under control while it pursues its foreign policy objectives: developing its nuclear program and expanding its orbit of influence into Iraq under the leadership of a firebrand president.