Thomas Hayden best case scenario is one that may have too many possible alternative outcomes to predict.  Even if the Iraqis elect a "secular, non-radical cleric dominated government" the very same disenfranchised secular or radical secular groups may have a very hard time convincing the radical cleric dominated types that the election was not rigged!!  Already their are voting irregularities that have many questioning the validity of the election.  In fact some to the same problems as too many votes having been cast over and above the registered voters in a given province much like our own voting irregularities have sprang up.  As far as the Iraqi army and "other" security forces taking on the over all security for the country... I have my doubts about that really happening.  How can an army of any size with units made up of the same groups that are in dispute, hope to hold multiple factions under control and keep the peace? 

No I think the likely case will be Civil War and the spoils going to the dominating culture.  How can you expect a country that has been ruled by corrupt elections accept that 99% of ballots cast in Sunni provinces were for the new draft constitution?  The only hope for this election was to have it accepted as legitimate and that is now in doubt.

I find it interesting that you can find sufficient numbers of generals that will go either way on the issue of winning or loosing the war in Iraqi.  I do agree that we don't lose battles or platoons in the fighting that is on going in Iraqi. However, the perception of the lack of safety, the lack of basic power and plumbing, the rampant corruption and theft of money sent to rebuild Iraqi and the ongoing lack of accountability for these issues will not win the hearts and minds of Americans who want to see progress in these areas.  It does not help when the administration or "state government" as some believe will not answer simple questions nor allow questions to be asked about what is going on.  Fix the perception of our own government in the minds of America and you will have a better chance of achieving success in Iraqi.

"Stay Alert, Stay Alive"

I am sorry to say that I too only see civil war in the cards for Iraq. People it took our founding fathers seven years to write our constitution. Here we were asking the Iraq people to come up with a working one in under a year. Mind you that in the US we were not in the same security situation as is currently in Iraq during the framing of the constitution.

Democracy is not something you can cookie cutter place in any civilization willy nilly. If the US was made up of three families like the Hatfields and the McCoys we would have had a much rougher time putting our constitution together as well. This is basically what you have in Iraq with the Shia, Sunni and the Kurds to the north.

What I find interesting is that most of the people who voted on the constitution in Iraq never even read it. How can you vote on something that you haven't even read. There were so many changes right up to the date of the election that the final draft had no time to be printed up for the general population to read. Now really what kind of vote is that??????? Granted most people in the US have no clue what they are voting for on election day but at least that is their choice.

As far as the generals on the ground well i agree, opinions are like back sides everybody has one. If you ask enough of them you will find one that feels the way you do. Yes we have not lost a platoon yet but what does that really mean. We are loosing our boys and girls in two's and three's does that make their deaths any less valuable, sorry I just don't buy it.  We are loosing our men and women to IED's everyday...we should have learned by now how to avoid or at least develop a countermeasure to these evil devices. The insurgents are killing us just like we did to the Russians, when we were the insurgents in Afghanistan in the 1980's. " Death by a thousand cuts" this is the policy of the insurgents in Iraq. They don't want to kill a whole paltoon, it is much eaiser to kill us in ones and twos..The are also engaged in hunting the US American soldier.  Has anyone noticed the number of our sniper teams which have been eliminated. Not just one but the whole team. Peoples this is not a good sign. We should be the ones in control of the situation there on the ground, but the sad fact of the matter is we are not. What this tells me is that we ( meaning our sniper teams are trying to hunt them, because they must be letting themselves be seen in order to be killed. As a Sniper your most dangerous period is when you are traveling to your hide site or changing sites or evacuating.

We also need more common sense in Iraq.. For example People when you have a large number of Iraqis who need physicals you don't ask them to all show up at the same doctor and wait in a long line outside. Why not just erect a bright Neon sign saying place bomb here. After the first bombing of doctors we should have realized our mistake and changed the policy accordingly. People, there are more than one doctors in Baghdad. Why not send the police recruits in twos to various doctors throughout the city. Thereby not creating any lines to be targeted. This stuff is not rocket science folks.

Our problem in Iraq is that we rotate our men through the system just as they have become situationally aware. We bring in new troops who have no clue what the threat environment is like over there and it will take them at least six months to a year to lean this vital combat skill that only comes with being in country. This is not something you can teach to them before they are there. Situational Awareness is a vital skill which can save your life. You become aware of the hostile environment around you an your execute you daily life around these facts of living in a war zone.

People, Imagine if you will for one moment, your front door is broken down right now. Soldiers in full combat gear with weapons drawn come pouring into you living room shouting at you in a foreign language. They stick a M4 in your face and tell you to lie on the ground, as the other members of the raiding team round up the rest of you family from your house. Your son sees the soldiers and runs to his toy box and picks up one of his toy guns. A young 18 year old soldier in the raiding party, who just happens to be on his first ever raid sees your son make a bee line for his toy chest. The soldier his heart in his throat, sweating from being under all that combat gear, sees the outline of a gun in your sons hand. The soldier shouts to you son to drop the weapon. Your son does not understand him because of the language barrier. The soldier has a split second to think. Threat or no Threat...He decides on threat...and shoots your son in a blinding flash..... Your son now lays dead in his bedroom. Mean while you have been very cooperative, the rest of your family is now in your living room. Your wife realizes that her son is missing. She begs the soldiers to release her so she can find her son. Again the language barrier is a problem. She tears herself away and runs to your sons room only to find his lifeless body next to his toy box. She takes a min to examine her lifeless sons body. Then she targets all her rage of a mother who has just seen her baby shot dead in her own home, on the strangers in her house. One of the medics with the raiding team give her a shot in the arm and she calms down in a few min.. Now I ask you.....How do you feel at this moment?  I hate to say it but this type of scenario takes place over in Iraq almost every day. If not this one one along the same lines.  This people is why we are not wining the war in Iraq.

"Stay Alert, Stay Alive"

Saddam and his sons gone

elections happening

government being formed

insurgents dieing by the bushel

looks good to me

Gentlemen:

All of the posts I've read so far are pretty much accurate in their analysis, providing that we are engaged in a "political" struggle of republicanistic democracy Vs. some form of tyrannical government.

Alas!  We have been engaged by a non-political enemy.  We have been, from our enemies view point, very fairly attacked, after a most deliberate and public declaration of war.

We were not attacked by Iraq.  We were not attacked by Afghanistan.  We will not be attacked by Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Lebannon, Libia, Jordan, Arab Imeritus States, Egypt nor any other duly constituted Shemetic state.  The nation that declared war on The United States of America was, and is, The Nation of Islam! 

Think for a moment.  What Presaident, Sultan, Prince or Kingly head of what state has declared war on us?  None!  Which of them would like to?  Who knows?  One of them, some of them, all of them?  But which ones have actually, formally declared war on the United States?  None of them!  Why not?  Look at the devastation that was wreaked on Iraq and how long did it take the U. S. Military forces to devastate Afghanistan?  Ten weeks to do what the USSR was unable to accomplish in ten years!

The only way we can win this "jihad" that has been forced on us is the way that Yahoweh God told King Saul of Israel to fight.  Kill all of the men, women, children and livestock; in fact "all that draw breath.  Destroy all that they possess and keep nothing of their posessions for yourself."

I would imagine by now at least some of you are gasping in horrified shock.  That concept is certainly not tolerant, nor is it politically correct!  But you have to remember that we are not engaged in a war of politics. WE are defending our nation against the perfectly reasonable (in their eyes) onslaughts of a pagan, even heathen mob of religious fanatics whose religious leaders have, while following the directives of their religion's founder, made every effort to destroy the infidel Jew and Christian, wherever they may be found, if they do not faithfully embrace their false religion.  Their "holyscriptures" command them to offer conversion and if it is rejected to kill the rejector, his wife and his children.  To "grant them no quarter".  And if they are themselves killed in these endeavors, they will be immediately trransported to their "paradise".

Our somewhat naive President and Military Leaders have not grasped the concept that they have engaged an implacable enemy whose total commitment is the conversion or death of every man woman and child IN THIS WORLD!  White, black, red, yellow or brown; it makes no difference to the true "Moslem" of Islam.

Our only responses to this terrible threat are to either totally destroy the Nation of Islam, which recognizes NO political boundries or allegiance, or withdraw back to our own Nation's perimeter and be prepard to suffer the many various attacks against us; to concentrate our defenses on our own borders, living in a country bound up in fear and draconian "Security" measures.

How sad that the peaceable Islamics are the radical ones, while the murdering, hating and hateful ones are the basic, everyday practitioners.

Perhaps if we began to approach this "war on Terrorism" from the direction it is being waged against us, we might come up a winner, if not we will suffer the fate of Mecca and Medina and Jerusalem, twelve hundred years ago, almost ALL of the entire Middle East was either Jewish or Christian...with Hindu and Buddhist colonies sprinkled here and there

Ok, here is what i think...  

First, we need to get the politics out of our armed forces. thus letting the war fighters fight the war.

Second, let the politics deal with building the new goverment. and hope and pray that they don't end up with as screwed up a et up as we have now.